By Frank Wouters, Chairman at the MENA Hydrogen Alliance
Albert Einstein said that three forces rule the universe: fear, greed and stupidity. Observing the growing disconnect between people and their leaders, we see those forces at work. Most people in the world are really concerned about climate change, and that concern is growing. But unfortunately, many of our leaders, whether democratically elected or not, seem to have a much shorter-term view concerning climate action. Climate change deniers rule many countries these days, steering us onto the “highway to climate hell”, as Antonio Guterres insisted last year.
Global concern about climate change is significant and growing. According to the world’s largest public opinion survey on climate change, conducted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 64% of people globally view climate change as a global emergency. Additionally, 53% of respondents reported being more worried about climate change now than they were a year earlier, likely due to the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. The survey also revealed that 80% of people want their countries to take stronger climate action, and 86% believe nations should set aside geopolitical differences to address the crisis together. Results show that people often want broad climate policies beyond the current state of play. For example, in eight of the ten survey countries with the highest emissions from the power sector, majorities backed more renewable energy. In four out of the five countries with the highest emissions from land-use change and enough data on policy preferences, there was majority support for conserving forests and land. Nine out of ten of the countries with the most urbanized populations backed more use of clean electric cars and buses, or bicycles.
Dii’s mission is no emissions, and that is supported by most people on the planet it seems. Why are we then struggling so much to reduce emissions? I believe it is mostly greed at work. The financial system mankind has engineered is rewarding pollution. The business of fossil fuels is too profitable and hence powerful, and countries exporting fossil fuels want to maximize income for their economies. We see the forces at work when stock markets reward companies that reduce or delay their previously promised decarbonization plans. As Gordon Gecko in the infamous movie “Wallstreet” said: “Greed is good”. Good for stockbrokers and investors perhaps, all of that in the short term, but not good for all of us.
A Stanford professor last year calculated the social cost of carbon to be more than $1,350 per tonne of CO2 emissions, considering global temperature, which correlates strongly with extreme climatic events. This is unlike country-level temperature used in previous work, explaining the larger estimate. He assumes a gradual increase in global mean temperature that starts in 2024 and reaches 3°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, so 2°C above 2024 temperatures. Climate change implies a quick decline in output of 46% by 2100. Capital shrinks by 37% and consumption drops by 37%, leading to a 25% welfare loss in permanent consumption equivalent in 2024. These magnitudes are comparable to the economic damage caused by the 1929 Great Depression, but experienced permanently.
Climate action is not expensive, emissions are. And most people know this.